The Indian elections of 2009

The Indian elections of 2009

Indian elections are more difficult to predict than those of, say the U.S. or Britain, for the reason that the factors going into the making of voters’ choices are more numerous and more complex but less articulated. For the same reason, it is also difficult to manipulate voters’ choices.

Except when there is a clear wave of sympathy or anger or whatever, which is what the demagogues and the rabble rousers of all the parties try to whip up all the time, and the media agitate and amplify, predicting election results is a gamble. This is exactly the reason why leaders of all parties consult astrologers or seek divine dispensations. Sephology is also no better. It is just sophisticated astrology. Instead of basing predictions on astronomical conjunctions, it uses sample surveys among a minuscule section of the population. Both are humbug, as they themselves have proved this time also.
Analysing election results to diagnose voters’ behaviour is just an idle exercise or a palliative indulgence. So, drawing any conclusions about why the BJP lost or the Congress gained is hazardous. And projecting them as a trend will be delusional.

For the loss in the 2004 elections, Mr.L.K.Advani has repeatedly blamed two mistakes his party had committed: the slogan of ‘India shining’ and the party’s ‘overconfidence’. Blaming a slogan for the loss of an election in which close to half a billion voters participated is like blaming a horseshoe nail for losing a battle. It is sheer baloney, floated desperately to sell his claim that the loss was a mistake the voters committed inadvertently. He blamed, unintentionally perhaps, the voters of flippantly exercising their franchise in a fit of reaction to a silly slogan. This need not surprise anyone, as Mr.Advani is known to relish insulting his detractors and adversaries.

If the slogan excuse is only silly, the ‘overconfidence’ excuse is plain stupid. Mr.Advani was blaming overconfidence as the reason for his party’s underperformance. The performers were the voters, and the overconfidence, if real, was of the party leaders. How could the overconfidence of the BJP leaders impact the voters’ choice? Is he, perhaps, suggesting that the voters chose to punish the BJP for the indiscretion of displaying arrogance or neglecting proper campaigning? How one wishes the near half a billion voters of India are diligently tracking even the private thoughts of their leaders to punish or reward them instantly!

By chance, was Mr.Advani blaming only his own workers? It cannot be even by a whisker, for the workers are only the cheerleaders, not the players. The players are the voters.

Personally I am happy that the BJP lost, because, they are enemies of an inclusive, pluralistic political system. They disrupt the life of many, mostly for no fault of theirs, by fanning whatever tensions are already there among different communities. Its leaders indulge in mouthing personal insults against their political adversaries, in which, invariably, Mr. Advani himself leads the rest from the front.

And I wish they would never come to power again at the centre.

Regarding the Left, especially the CPI(M), it is a pity that Mr.Karat has blundered on more than one occasion, may be under the pressure of ideological compulsions and the real-politik in West Bengal and Kerala. That India could absorb much of the effects of the global economic downturn was largely due to the Left’s spirited resistance to the Manmohan-Chidambaram plan to throw open the Indian financial market to foreign direct investments, to invest employees pension fund in share markets, etc. But, it overreached itelf and landed itself in an undeserved political crisis. It may recover lost ground and even improve their tally in course of time, and I wish it well, for it was the Left that had functioned as a constructive Opposition in the Parliament when the legitimate Opposition led by Mr.Advani had recklessly forfeited its constitutional obligations.
SUZARIN