New Window of Opportunity for India and Pakistan

New Window of Opportunity for India and Pakistan

Zardari government is only one of the four main power centres in Pakistan, others being the army, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), and the radical Islamist groups you aptly mentioned as terror industry. International engagements with Pakistan can and ought to be with only the government, which is but the weakest power centre of all. That was why the unambiguous commitment made before the world media by the highest functionaries of the Pakistani government to send the ISI Chief to India for a joint investigation into the Mumbai terror attack was later broken, most probably under pressure from other power centres.

In contrast, the power centres other than the government are unaccountable to the international comity as they are operating from behind the curtain. Each one of them has, however, its own vested interests and private agendas. The army owns and deals in real estate and other lucrative businesses on an unimaginably large scale. Though an organ of the army, the ISI functions very much as an independent entity and works in tandem with the terror industry.

Until 9/11, the differences among the power centres did not show as their interests could converge against their only acknowledged enemy – India.

But, after 9/11, Pakistan had to put up with two sets of terrorists on its soil, namely Al Qaeda and Taliban on its western border with Afghanistan and Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba on its eastern border with India. The then President of Pakistan, Gen. Musharraf, given only a Hobson’s choice, joined the global ‘fight against terror’, but tried to draw a distinction between the two, calling the western groups alone ‘terrorists’ and the eastern groups ‘Kashmiri freedom fighters’. The Mumbai attack, from all available accounts, was planned and executed with the eastern group’s involvement.

For a brief but reliable account of this involvement, and also for the profile of the real life terrorist caught while in action, which may be of interest to the List, please see:
http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/02/stories/2008120259961000.htm

Even if Zardari’s government is willing, it cannot act against the interests of the other power centres. Indeed, the sheer audacity and havoc of the Mumbai attack has opened a new window of opportunity, and India should take the initiative to use it to stabilize its relationship with Pakistan. It should understand the peculiar power equations in Pakistan and refrain from targeting and cornering Zardari alone over his shifting positions and hollow excuses. Zardari needs to be carried along in an intense diplomatic engagement by India. He is any day a better bet than Musharraf. Let us hope the U.S. and other major world players will help them along.
Suzarin

Letter sent to Psychohistory on 4.12.08